What is the expected value of a Conspiracy Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Conspiracy Draft Booster Box gets you about $369.00 of cards at market price, against a market price of $252.78 for the box — a ratio of 1.46x. Selling those cards would return about $179.28 after fees, because 29% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Conspiracy Draft Booster Box worth opening?

Measured against buying the singles, yes: at $252.78 a box the cards inside are worth about $116.22 more than the box costs. Measured as an investment, no — reselling them would return about $179.28 after fees and postage, which is less than the box costs. Check the price you would actually pay.

How much would you get back selling a Conspiracy Draft Booster Box?

About $179.28, against $369.00 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 29% of this box's value sits under that line.

Conspiracy

Cards inside $369.00+$116 ahead

Conspiracy

Conspiracy Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $369.00 of cards, on average. A box costs $253 right now, so that means you're +$116.22 ahead.

Cards inside

$369.00

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$253

TCGplayer market · from $396

Difference

+$116.22

In your favour

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 17, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$369.00 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$369.00

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$179.28

About 49% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

29%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 29% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$650

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 49% of $369.

+$116.22

per box, in your favour

The cards are worth more than the box

At $253 a box you'd come out about $116.22 ahead on average. Over many boxes that edge is real — but any single box can still be a dud.

Break-even price

$369.00

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Nondraft rare mythic

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$4.67

Whole box

$168.12

$117.00 kept

46%

Nondraft common

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$2.50

Whole box

$90.00

$6.84 kept

24%

Nondraft uncommon

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.94

Whole box

$69.84

$32.04 kept

19%

Nondraft foil

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.91

Whole box

$32.76

$22.68 kept

Everything else

2 smaller slots — alternate-art pairs, bonus sheets and the like, each under 2% of the box.

Per pack

$0.22

Whole box

$7.92

$0.72 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Draft Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Treasonous Ogre

$99.77

You'll open one about 1.8 per box

#2 most valuable

Misdirection

$97.74

You'll open one about 1 per box

#3 most valuable

Pernicious Deed

$68.41

You'll open one about 1 every 2 boxes

Phage the Untouchable

mythicabout 1 every 2 boxes

$65.91

Exploration

rareabout 1 per box

$62.76

Dack Fayden

mythicabout 1 every 2 boxes

$49.91

Hydra Omnivore

mythicabout 1 every 2 boxes

$48.83

Basandra, Battle Seraph

rareabout 1 per box

$38.81

Silent Arbiter

rareabout 1 per box

$38.63

Marchesa, the Black Rose

mythicabout 1 every 2 boxes

$38.17

Every rare and mythic in the set

53 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Exploration	rare	$34.98	$62.76	0.93
Altar of Dementia	rare	$19.07	$22.56	0.93
Reflecting Pool	rare	$16.96	$26.76	0.93
Phage the Untouchable	mythic	$16.46	$65.91	0.47
Vedalken Orrery	rare	$16.37	$30.50	0.93
Stifle	rare	$15.78	$22.58	0.93
Misdirection	rare	$13.36	$97.74	0.93
Silent Arbiter	rare	$11.65	$38.63	0.93
Coercive Portal	mythic	$9.84	$16.00	0.47
Dack Fayden	mythic	$7.43	$49.91	0.47
Mirari's Wake	mythic	$6.93	$8.00	0.47
Deathrender	rare	$5.71	$9.76	0.93
Reya Dawnbringer	rare	$4.47	$5.71	0.93
Pernicious Deed	mythic	$4.28	$68.41	0.47
Brago, King Eternal	rare	$3.67	$15.50	0.93
Heartless Hidetsugu	rare	$3.52	$3.02	0.93
Edric, Spymaster of Trest	rare	$2.83	$14.24	0.93
Basandra, Battle Seraph	rare	$2.57	$38.81	0.93
Marchesa, the Black Rose	mythic	$1.57	$38.17	0.47
Hydra Omnivore	mythic	$1.55	$48.83	0.47

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Magic 2015

$189 of cards

$203 short of the box price

Journey into Nyx

$183 of cards

$73 short of the box price

Khans of Tarkir

$157 of cards

$142 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $369.00. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Conspiracy

Conspiracy Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $369.00 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?