What is the expected value of a Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Set Booster Box?

Opening a Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Set Booster Box gets you about $154.80 of cards at market price, against a market price of $191.07 for the box — a ratio of 0.81x. Selling those cards would return about $52.50 after fees, because 49% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Set Booster Box worth opening?

No: at $191.07 a box the cards inside are worth about $36.27 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $154.80 or less, and less again — about $52.50 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Set Booster Box?

About $52.50, against $154.80 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 49% of this box's value sits under that line.

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt

Cards inside $154.80$36 short

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Set Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $154.80 of cards, on average. A box costs $191 right now, so that means you're $36.27 short.

Cards inside

$154.80

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$191

TCGplayer market · from $190

Difference

-$36.27

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 17, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$154.80 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$154.80

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$52.50

About 34% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

49%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 49% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$500

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 34% of $155.

-$36.27

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $191 a box you'd come up about $36.27 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$154.80

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

The List

A reprint pulled from a rotating list of older cards. It replaces a common in a small share of packs.

Per pack

$1.21

Whole box

$36.30

$24.90 kept

23%

Rare or mythic

The one guaranteed rare or mythic in every pack. This is where most of a box’s value sits.

Per pack

$1.14

Whole box

$34.20

$15.60 kept

22%

Wildcard

An extra card of any rarity. Most of the time it is a common or uncommon, but it can be a second rare.

Per pack

$0.73

Whole box

$21.90

$7.50 kept

14%

Single-faced commons

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.52

Whole box

$15.60

$0.30 kept

10%

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$0.48

Whole box

$14.40

$0.00 kept

Single-faced uncommons

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.47

Whole box

$14.10

$0.30 kept

Foil incl. showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.42

Whole box

$12.60

$3.90 kept

Foil basic land

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.17

Whole box

$5.10

$0.30 kept

Equinox common uncommon

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.02

Whole box

$0.60

$0.00 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Set Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Ancient Tomb

$127.91

You'll open one about 1 every 33 boxes

#2 most valuable

Demonic Tutor

$65.88

You'll open one about 1 every 33 boxes

#3 most valuable

Gemstone Caverns

$64.39

You'll open one about 1 every 33 boxes

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$60.88

Cavern of Souls

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$52.72

Mycosynth Golem

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$49.86

Akroma's Memorial

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$36.53

Doubling Cube

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$35.84

The Meathook Massacre

mythicabout 1 every 4 boxes

$28.45

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed

mythicabout 1 every 33 boxes

$24.23

Every rare and mythic in the set

270 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Demonic Tutor	rare	$65.88	—	0.03
Gemstone Caverns	rare	$64.39	—	0.03
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth	rare	$60.88	—	0.03
Cavern of Souls	rare	$52.72	—	0.03
Mycosynth Golem	rare	$49.86	—	0.03
Akroma's Memorial	rare	$36.53	—	0.03
Doubling Cube	rare	$35.84	—	0.03
The Meathook Massacre	mythic	$24.33	$28.45	0.23
Mikaeus, the Unhallowed	mythic	$24.23	—	0.03
The Chain Veil	mythic	$19.55	—	0.03
Graveborn Muse	rare	$19.36	—	0.03
Vedalken Orrery	rare	$19.31	—	0.03
Pact of Negation	rare	$19.29	—	0.03
Grand Arbiter Augustin IV	rare	$19.23	—	0.03
Snapcaster Mage	rare	$18.56	—	0.03
Balefire Dragon	mythic	$18.45	—	0.03
Krark's Thumb	rare	$18.29	—	0.03
Phenax, God of Deception	mythic	$16.97	—	0.03
Daxos the Returned	mythic	$16.72	—	0.03
Lord of the Undead	rare	$16.39	—	0.03

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt

$140 of cards

$21 short of the box price

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms

$252 of cards

$150 short of the box price

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt

$131 of cards

$142 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $154.80. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Set Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $154.80 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?