What is the expected value of a Modern Horizons 2 Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Modern Horizons 2 Draft Booster Box gets you about $391.32 of cards at market price, against a market price of $339.37 for the box — a ratio of 1.15x. Selling those cards would return about $189.72 after fees, because 34% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Modern Horizons 2 Draft Booster Box worth opening?

Measured against buying the singles, yes: at $339.37 a box the cards inside are worth about $51.95 more than the box costs. Measured as an investment, no — reselling them would return about $189.72 after fees and postage, which is less than the box costs. Check the price you would actually pay.

How much would you get back selling a Modern Horizons 2 Draft Booster Box?

About $189.72, against $391.32 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 34% of this box's value sits under that line.

Modern Horizons 2

Cards inside $391.32+$52 ahead

Modern Horizons 2

Modern Horizons 2 Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $391.32 of cards, on average. A box costs $339 right now, so that means you're +$51.95 ahead.

Cards inside

$391.32

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$339

TCGplayer market · from $350

Difference

+$51.95

In your favour

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 17, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$391.32 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$391.32

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$189.72

About 48% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

34%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 34% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$850

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 48% of $391.

+$51.95

per box, in your favour

The cards are worth more than the box

At $339 a box you'd come out about $51.95 ahead on average. Over many boxes that edge is real — but any single box can still be a dud.

Break-even price

$391.32

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

New rare mythic

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$5.82

Whole box

$209.52

$151.92 kept

54%

Common with showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$2.13

Whole box

$76.68

$1.44 kept

20%

Reprint to modern

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.26

Whole box

$45.36

$19.80 kept

12%

New uncommon

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.11

Whole box

$39.96

$5.40 kept

10%

Foil incl. showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.54

Whole box

$19.44

$11.52 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Draft Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

$94.17

You'll open one about 1 every 33 boxes

#2 most valuable

Esper Sentinel

$77.35

You'll open one about 1 every 17 boxes

#3 most valuable

Esper Sentinel

$75.42

You'll open one about 1 every 2 boxes

Misty Rainforest

rareabout 1 every 17 boxes

$64.39

Urza's Saga

rareabout 1 every 2 boxes

$61.86

Urza's Saga

rareabout 1 every 17 boxes

$61.51

Solitude

mythicabout 1 every 33 boxes

$61.29

Cabal Coffers

mythicabout 1 every 11 boxes

$59.40

Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

mythicabout 1 every 5 boxes

$56.59

Scalding Tarn

rareabout 1 every 17 boxes

$51.47

Every rare and mythic in the set

191 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Esper Sentinel	rare	$60.21	$77.35	0.06
Esper Sentinel	rare	$55.29	$75.42	0.44
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer	mythic	$51.41	$94.17	0.03
Misty Rainforest	rare	$45.72	$64.39	0.06
Scalding Tarn	rare	$45.12	$51.47	0.06
Cabal Coffers	mythic	$42.77	$59.40	0.09
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer	mythic	$40.15	$56.59	0.22
Marsh Flats	rare	$38.78	$45.19	0.06
Urza's Saga	rare	$38.55	$61.51	0.06
Urza's Saga	rare	$37.75	$61.86	0.44
Solitude	mythic	$37.41	$61.29	0.03
Misty Rainforest	rare	$37.18	$44.00	0.44
Arid Mesa	rare	$37.16	$46.18	0.06
Verdant Catacombs	rare	$36.81	$44.39	0.06
Scalding Tarn	rare	$35.81	$42.34	0.44
Solitude	mythic	$32.94	$45.94	0.22
Marsh Flats	rare	$32.05	$37.79	0.44
Verdant Catacombs	rare	$29.65	$37.00	0.44
Arid Mesa	rare	$28.56	$36.77	0.44
Cabal Coffers	mythic	$27.95	$38.07	0.18

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Modern Horizons 2

$372 of cards

$274 short of the box price

Modern Horizons 2

$421 of cards

$68 short of the box price

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms

$217 of cards

$89 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $391.32. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Modern Horizons 2

Modern Horizons 2 Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $391.32 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?