What is the expected value of a Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Box?

The current expected value of opening a Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Box is $482.23, compared to a retail price of $240. This gives an EV ratio of 2.01x.

Is the Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Box worth opening?

Based on current card prices, opening this box has a positive expected value of +$242.23.

Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Box

2.01x

EV: $482.23Retail: $240P/L: +$242.23

Modern Horizons 3

Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Box

2.01x EV

Box EV

$482.23

Retail Price

$240

Profit / Loss

+$242.23

Packs

Prices from Scryfall / TCGPlayer · Updated 4/7/2026

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EV Breakdown by Slot

Slot	Per-Pack EV	Box Contribution	Share
Rare / Mythic	$7.50	$269.84	56%
Wildcard	$2.21	$79.45	16%
Foil (any rarity)	$3.69	$132.93	28%
Total		$482.23	100%

Top 10 Chase Cards

Ocelot Pride

$71.03

+$6.91 EV

Ulamog, the Defiler

$48.47

+$4.72 EV

Ocelot Pride

$45.46

+$4.42 EV

Kaalia of the Vast

mythic~0.10 per box

$42.19

+$4.10 EV

Phyrexian Tower

mythic~0.10 per box

$38.28

+$3.72 EV

Polluted Delta

rare~0.28 per box

$33.33

+$9.43 EV

Bloodstained Mire

rare~0.28 per box

$32.98

+$9.33 EV

Flooded Strand

rare~0.28 per box

$32.82

+$9.29 EV

Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student // Tamiyo, Seasoned Scholar

mythic~0.10 per box

$28.88

+$2.81 EV

#10

Polluted Delta

rare~0.28 per box

$28.04

+$7.94 EV

All Rares & Mythics

Name	Rarity	Price	Foil	Per Box
Ocelot Pride	mythic	$71.03	$146.57	0.10
Ulamog, the Defiler	mythic	$48.47	$110.22	0.10
Ocelot Pride	mythic	$45.46	$66.72	0.10
Kaalia of the Vast	mythic	$42.19	$115.26	0.10
Phyrexian Tower	mythic	$38.28	$61.74	0.10
Polluted Delta	rare	$33.33	$72.10	0.28
Bloodstained Mire	rare	$32.98	$66.28	0.28
Flooded Strand	rare	$32.82	$66.09	0.28
Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student // Tamiyo, Seasoned Scholar	mythic	$28.88	$36.59	0.10
Polluted Delta	rare	$28.04	$101.59	0.28
Wooded Foothills	rare	$28.01	$52.23	0.28
Phyrexian Tower	mythic	$26.16	$25.32	0.10
Wooded Foothills	rare	$24.50	$81.51	0.28
Flooded Strand	rare	$23.50	$113.28	0.28
Windswept Heath	rare	$23.35	$51.42	0.28
Emrakul, the World Anew	mythic	$22.79	$62.50	0.10
Warren Soultrader	rare	$22.78	$44.84	0.28
Polluted Delta	rare	$22.46	$28.66	0.28
Bloodstained Mire	rare	$21.94	$63.04	0.28
Wooded Foothills	rare	$21.43	$24.54	0.28
Jet Medallion	rare	$20.81	$34.62	0.28
Ashling, Flame Dancer	mythic	$20.40	$38.58	0.10
Windswept Heath	rare	$20.35	$59.01	0.28
Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury	mythic	$20.21	$25.09	0.10
Urza's Incubator	rare	$19.66	$26.78	0.28
Bloodstained Mire	rare	$19.63	$21.68	0.28
Flooded Strand	rare	$19.15	$23.26	0.28
Ruby Medallion	rare	$18.89	$30.20	0.28
Ulamog, the Defiler	mythic	$18.89	$31.20	0.10
Ugin's Labyrinth	mythic	$17.25	$37.50	0.10
Warren Soultrader	rare	$16.11	$29.43	0.28
Psychic Frog	rare	$16.01	$42.78	0.28
Arena of Glory	rare	$15.41	$30.23	0.28
Flare of Fortitude	rare	$15.24	$30.87	0.28
Ajani, Nacatl Pariah // Ajani, Nacatl Avenger	mythic	$14.43	$18.13	0.10
Windswept Heath	rare	$14.41	$16.41	0.28
Kaalia of the Vast	mythic	$14.09	$20.97	0.10
Six	rare	$14.00	$26.08	0.28
Kozilek, the Broken Reality	mythic	$12.09	$36.93	0.10
Flare of Denial	rare	$12.02	$37.10	0.28
Ashling, Flame Dancer	mythic	$11.58	$25.00	0.10
Eladamri, Korvecdal	mythic	$11.27	$15.58	0.10
Pearl Medallion	rare	$10.67	$23.23	0.28
Eladamri, Korvecdal	mythic	$10.66	$14.56	0.10
Fanatic of Rhonas	rare	$10.18	$13.67	0.28
Orim's Chant	rare	$9.94	$26.75	0.28
Sapphire Medallion	rare	$9.88	$20.37	0.28
Shifting Woodland	rare	$9.81	$22.25	0.28
Phelia, Exuberant Shepherd	rare	$9.44	$19.95	0.28
Toxic Deluge	rare	$9.29	$12.93	0.28
Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy	mythic	$9.22	$15.09	0.10
Nethergoyf	mythic	$9.03	$13.06	0.10
Ripples of Undeath	rare	$9.01	$10.30	0.28
Sorin of House Markov // Sorin, Ravenous Neonate	mythic	$8.86	$12.85	0.10
Birthing Ritual	mythic	$8.72	$15.74	0.10
Psychic Frog	rare	$8.48	$16.80	0.28
Six	rare	$7.55	$11.30	0.28
Springheart Nantuko	rare	$6.90	$16.30	0.28
Flare of Duplication	rare	$6.48	$31.63	0.28
Recruiter of the Guard	mythic	$6.47	$13.39	0.10
Flare of Denial	rare	$6.13	$19.32	0.28
Emrakul, the World Anew	mythic	$6.11	$10.80	0.10
Emerald Medallion	rare	$5.73	$10.80	0.28
Kozilek, the Broken Reality	mythic	$5.17	$10.52	0.10
Dreamtide Whale	rare	$5.17	$6.27	0.28
Wrath of the Skies	rare	$5.08	$13.07	0.28
Guide of Souls	rare	$4.95	$5.69	0.28
Flare of Malice	rare	$4.90	$10.02	0.28
Sowing Mycospawn	rare	$4.74	$13.29	0.28
Flare of Fortitude	rare	$4.65	$6.69	0.28
Strix Serenade	rare	$4.54	$15.79	0.28
Necrodominance	mythic	$4.22	$15.03	0.10
Chthonian Nightmare	rare	$3.93	$9.68	0.28
Wrath of the Skies	rare	$3.89	$7.62	0.28
Volatile Stormdrake	rare	$3.76	$14.08	0.28
Grist, Voracious Larva // Grist, the Plague Swarm	mythic	$3.68	$4.58	0.10
Flare of Cultivation	rare	$3.63	$9.73	0.28
Harbinger of the Seas	rare	$3.49	$6.09	0.28
Wight of the Reliquary	rare	$3.41	$6.11	0.28
Nulldrifter	rare	$3.26	$5.74	0.28
Flare of Duplication	rare	$3.15	$18.41	0.28
Amphibian Downpour	rare	$3.14	$8.30	0.28
Echoes of Eternity	rare	$2.95	$5.34	0.28
Herigast, Erupting Nullkite	mythic	$2.94	$7.01	0.10
Party Thrasher	rare	$2.90	$8.23	0.28
Disruptor Flute	rare	$2.89	$5.75	0.28
White Orchid Phantom	rare	$2.87	$5.97	0.28
Emperor of Bones	rare	$2.77	$5.38	0.28
Flare of Malice	rare	$2.63	$8.06	0.28
Ugin's Binding	mythic	$2.62	$5.59	0.10
Kappa Cannoneer	rare	$2.22	$7.10	0.28
Spymaster's Vault	rare	$1.96	$4.31	0.28
Breya, Etherium Shaper	mythic	$1.52	$5.85	0.10
Shadow of the Second Sun	mythic	$1.40	$4.03	0.10
White Orchid Phantom	rare	$1.38	$3.02	0.28
Archway of Innovation	rare	$1.35	$3.16	0.28
Laelia, the Blade Reforged	rare	$1.32	$3.49	0.28
Winter Moon	rare	$1.29	$2.06	0.28
Arna Kennerüd, Skycaptain	mythic	$1.24	$4.30	0.10
The Necrobloom	rare	$1.24	$6.11	0.28
Flare of Cultivation	rare	$1.24	$1.87	0.28
Chthonian Nightmare	rare	$1.12	$3.68	0.28
Invert Polarity	rare	$1.10	$2.73	0.28
Volatile Stormdrake	rare	$1.06	$4.71	0.28
K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth	rare	$1.04	$1.89	0.28
Monumental Henge	rare	$1.03	$2.73	0.28
Abstruse Appropriation	rare	$0.74	$1.68	0.28
Detective's Phoenix	rare	$0.73	$1.25	0.28
Party Thrasher	rare	$0.72	$1.76	0.28
Deserted Temple	rare	$0.68	$1.23	0.28
Primal Prayers	rare	$0.64	$1.62	0.28
Pearl-Ear, Imperial Advisor	rare	$0.59	$1.24	0.28
Imskir Iron-Eater	rare	$0.49	$1.46	0.28
Powerbalance	rare	$0.48	$1.49	0.28
Wheel of Potential	rare	$0.46	$1.34	0.28
Nadu, Winged Wisdom	rare	$0.46	$1.96	0.28
Crabomination	rare	$0.44	$0.43	0.28
Kudo, King Among Bears	rare	$0.40	$0.83	0.28
Shilgengar, Sire of Famine	rare	$0.35	$0.67	0.28
Imskir Iron-Eater	rare	$0.31	$0.45	0.28
Aether Revolt	rare	$0.31	$0.36	0.28
Rosheen, Roaring Prophet	rare	$0.30	$0.40	0.28
Kudo, King Among Bears	rare	$0.29	$0.75	0.28
Primal Prayers	rare	$0.28	$0.40	0.28
Genku, Future Shaper	rare	$0.26	$0.35	0.28
Argent Dais	rare	$0.22	$0.29	0.28
Wheel of Potential	rare	$0.20	$0.31	0.28
Rosheen, Roaring Prophet	rare	$0.18	$0.16	0.28
Emrakul, the World Anew	mythic	—	—	0.10
Kozilek, the Broken Reality	mythic	—	—	0.10
Ulamog, the Defiler	mythic	—	—	0.10
Ajani, Nacatl Pariah // Ajani, Nacatl Avenger	mythic	—	$36.71	0.10
Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student // Tamiyo, Seasoned Scholar	mythic	—	$73.91	0.10
Sorin of House Markov // Sorin, Ravenous Neonate	mythic	—	$37.59	0.10
Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy	mythic	—	$43.97	0.10
Grist, Voracious Larva // Grist, the Plague Swarm	mythic	—	$13.99	0.10
Emrakul, the World Anew	mythic	—	—	0.10
Herigast, Erupting Nullkite	mythic	—	—	0.10
Kozilek, the Broken Reality	mythic	—	—	0.10
Ulamog, the Defiler	mythic	—	—	0.10
Pearl-Ear, Imperial Advisor	rare	—	—	0.28
Phelia, Exuberant Shepherd	rare	—	—	0.28
K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth	rare	—	—	0.28
Shilgengar, Sire of Famine	rare	—	—	0.28
Ashling, Flame Dancer	mythic	—	—	0.10
Laelia, the Blade Reforged	rare	—	—	0.28
Eladamri, Korvecdal	mythic	—	—	0.10
Six	rare	—	—	0.28
Arna Kennerüd, Skycaptain	mythic	—	—	0.10
Breya, Etherium Shaper	mythic	—	—	0.10
Genku, Future Shaper	rare	—	—	0.28
Imskir Iron-Eater	rare	—	—	0.28
Kaalia of the Vast	mythic	—	—	0.10
Kudo, King Among Bears	rare	—	—	0.28
Nadu, Winged Wisdom	rare	—	—	0.28
The Necrobloom	rare	—	—	0.28
Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury	mythic	—	—	0.10
Rosheen, Roaring Prophet	rare	—	—	0.28
Powerbalance	rare	—	$0.21	0.28
Flusterstorm	rare	—	$7.78	0.28

Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Box

Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Box

EV Breakdown by Slot

Top 10 Chase Cards

All Rares & Mythics

Methodology

How is EV calculated?

Where do prices come from?

What's included in the calculation?

How accurate is this?