What is the expected value of a Modern Horizons Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Modern Horizons Draft Booster Box gets you about $437.40 of cards at market price. Selling them would return about $187.92 after fees. We do not hold a current list price for it, so compare both figures against what a sealed box actually costs you today.

Is the Modern Horizons Draft Booster Box worth opening?

Measured against buying the singles, yes: at MSRP the cards inside are worth about $142.08 more than the box costs. Measured as an investment, no — reselling them would return about $187.92 after fees and postage, which is less than the $undefined box. Shops also often charge above MSRP, so check the price you would actually pay.

How much would you get back selling a Modern Horizons Draft Booster Box?

About $187.92, against $437.40 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 38% of this box's value sits under that line.

Modern Horizons

Cards inside $437.40+$142 ahead of list

Modern Horizons

Modern Horizons Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $437.40 of cards, on average. A box costs $295 right now, so that means you're +$142.08 ahead.

Cards inside

$437.40

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$295

TCGplayer market · from $272

Difference

+$142.08

In your favour

Packs in the box

Each holds one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked September 2, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated August 29, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$437.40 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$437.40

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$187.92

About 43% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

38%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 38% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$750

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 43% of $437.

+$142.08

per box, in your favour

The cards are worth more than the box

At $295 a box you'd come out about $142.08 ahead on average. Over many boxes that edge is real — but any single box can still be a dud.

Break-even price

$437.40

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Rare or mythic

The one guaranteed rare or mythic in every pack. This is where most of a box’s value sits.

Per pack

$6.10

Whole box

$219.60

$152.64 kept

50%

Commons

The bulk of the pack. Individually worth very little.

Per pack

$2.92

Whole box

$105.12

$12.24 kept

24%

Uncommons

Three per pack. Occasionally one is worth real money.

Per pack

$1.32

Whole box

$47.52

$5.76 kept

11%

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$1.05

Whole box

$37.80

$0.00 kept

Foil (any rarity)

The guaranteed shiny card in every pack. Usually a common, occasionally something expensive.

Per pack

$0.76

Whole box

$27.36

$16.92 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Play Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Force of Negation

$64.74

You'll open one about 1 every 2 boxes

#2 most valuable

The First Sliver

$63.60

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

#3 most valuable

Ranger-Captain of Eos

$59.94

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

Echo of Eons

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$57.42

Prismatic Vista

rareabout 1 every 2 boxes

$54.27

Serra the Benevolent

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$54.16

Yawgmoth, Thran Physician

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$43.87

Sword of Truth and Justice

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$42.59

Mox Tantalite

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$25.98

Collector Ouphe

rareabout 1 every 2 boxes

$25.18

Every rare and mythic in the set

68 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Force of Negation	rare	$54.23	$64.74	0.62
Ranger-Captain of Eos	mythic	$38.84	$59.94	0.31
The First Sliver	mythic	$38.35	$63.60	0.31
Sword of Truth and Justice	mythic	$32.10	$42.59	0.31
Prismatic Vista	rare	$31.72	$54.27	0.62
Yawgmoth, Thran Physician	mythic	$27.75	$43.87	0.31
Altar of Dementia	rare	$17.37	$19.52	0.62
Urza, Lord High Artificer	mythic	$17.25	$18.55	0.31
Echo of Eons	mythic	$12.96	$57.42	0.31
Hall of Heliod's Generosity	rare	$11.46	$19.32	0.62
Giver of Runes	rare	$11.32	$13.56	0.62
Mox Tantalite	mythic	$11.19	$25.98	0.31
Eladamri's Call	rare	$11.06	$20.67	0.62
Sword of Sinew and Steel	mythic	$10.46	$23.11	0.31
Goblin Engineer	rare	$9.39	$11.28	0.62
Unbound Flourishing	mythic	$8.72	$22.45	0.31
Force of Vigor	rare	$8.63	$16.09	0.62
Morophon, the Boundless	mythic	$8.61	$13.15	0.31
Wrenn and Six	mythic	$7.86	$20.40	0.31
Force of Despair	rare	$7.82	$19.04	0.62

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Core Set 2020

$209 of cards

+$44 ahead of list

War of the Spark

$204 of cards

+$9 ahead of list

Throne of Eldraine

$172 of cards

$19 short of list

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $437.40. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Modern Horizons

Modern Horizons Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $437.40 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?