What is the expected value of a Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Box gets you about $100.08 of cards at market price. Selling them would return about $22.68 after fees. We do not hold a current list price for it, so compare both figures against what a sealed box actually costs you today.

Is the Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Box worth opening?

No: at MSRP the cards inside are worth about $103.20 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $100.08 or less, and less again — about $22.68 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Box?

About $22.68, against $100.08 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 68% of this box's value sits under that line.

Shadows over Innistrad

Cards inside $100.08$103 short of list

Shadows over Innistrad

Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $100.08 of cards, on average. A box costs $203 right now, so that means you're $103.20 short.

Cards inside

$100.08

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$203

TCGplayer market · from $215

Difference

-$103.20

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked September 2, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated August 29, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$100.08 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$100.08

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$22.68

About 23% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

68%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 68% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$525

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 23% of $100.

-$103.20

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $203 a box you'd come up about $103.20 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$100.08

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Single-faced rare or mythic

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.07

Whole box

$38.52

$18.36 kept

38%

Single-faced commons

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.83

Whole box

$29.88

$1.08 kept

30%

Single-faced uncommons

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.59

Whole box

$21.24

$1.44 kept

21%

Foil (any rarity)

The guaranteed shiny card in every pack. Usually a common, occasionally something expensive.

Per pack

$0.15

Whole box

$5.40

$1.44 kept

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$0.13

Whole box

$4.68

$0.00 kept

Double-faced common or uncommon

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.00

Whole box

$0.00

$0.00 kept

Double-faced rare or mythic

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.00

Whole box

$0.00

$0.00 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Play Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Cryptolith Rite

$14.40

You'll open one about 1 every 2 boxes

#2 most valuable

Eerie Interlude

$13.75

You'll open one about 1 every 2 boxes

#3 most valuable

Relentless Dead

$13.01

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

Sorin, Grim Nemesis

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$10.38

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$8.47

Diregraf Colossus

rareabout 1 every 2 boxes

$7.24

Open the Armory

uncommonabout 1 per box

$6.85

The Gitrog Monster

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$6.37

Essence Flux

uncommonabout 1 per box

$5.28

Anguished Unmaking

rareabout 1 every 2 boxes

$5.27

Every rare and mythic in the set

68 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Cryptolith Rite	rare	$14.40	$6.74	0.61
Relentless Dead	mythic	$13.01	$12.74	0.31
Diregraf Colossus	rare	$7.20	$7.24	0.61
Eerie Interlude	rare	$6.39	$13.75	0.61
Second Harvest	rare	$3.79	$2.81	0.61
Sorin, Grim Nemesis	mythic	$3.46	$10.38	0.31
Anguished Unmaking	rare	$2.25	$5.27	0.61
Seasons Past	mythic	$2.02	$3.58	0.31
Fevered Visions	rare	$1.58	$3.95	0.61
Jace, Unraveler of Secrets	mythic	$1.48	$8.47	0.31
The Gitrog Monster	mythic	$1.42	$6.37	0.31
Behold the Beyond	mythic	$0.97	$5.08	0.31
Always Watching	rare	$0.87	$2.24	0.61
Ulvenwald Hydra	mythic	$0.76	$4.36	0.31
Silverfur Partisan	rare	$0.70	$1.67	0.61
Olivia, Mobilized for War	mythic	$0.69	$4.49	0.31
Engulf the Shore	rare	$0.65	$2.01	0.61
Tamiyo's Journal	rare	$0.63	—	0.61
Traverse the Ulvenwald	rare	$0.61	$2.22	0.61
Thalia's Lieutenant	rare	$0.58	$4.10	0.61

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Eternal Masters

$721 of cards

out of print

Oath of the Gatewatch

$122 of cards

$52 short of list

Eldritch Moon

$132 of cards

$159 short of list

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $100.08. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Shadows over Innistrad

Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $100.08 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?