What is the expected value of a Shards of Alara Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Shards of Alara Draft Booster Box gets you about $225.00 of cards at market price, against a market price of $708.00 for the box — a ratio of 0.32x. Selling those cards would return about $70.20 after fees, because 50% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Shards of Alara Draft Booster Box worth opening?

No: at $708.00 a box the cards inside are worth about $483.00 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $225.00 or less, and less again — about $70.20 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Shards of Alara Draft Booster Box?

About $70.20, against $225.00 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 50% of this box's value sits under that line.

Shards of Alara

Cards inside $225.00$483 short

Shards of Alara

Shards of Alara Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $225.00 of cards, on average. A box costs $708 right now, so that means you're $483.00 short.

Cards inside

$225.00

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$708

TCGplayer market · from $720

Difference

-$483.00

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 16, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$225.00 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$225.00

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$70.20

About 31% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

50%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 50% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$1,775

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 31% of $225.

-$483.00

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $708 a box you'd come up about $483.00 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$225.00

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Commons

The bulk of the pack. Individually worth very little.

Per pack

$2.47

Whole box

$88.92

$20.88 kept

40%

Rare or mythic

The one guaranteed rare or mythic in every pack. This is where most of a box’s value sits.

Per pack

$2.04

Whole box

$73.44

$34.92 kept

33%

Uncommons

Three per pack. Occasionally one is worth real money.

Per pack

$0.76

Whole box

$27.36

$0.36 kept

12%

Foil (any rarity)

The guaranteed shiny card in every pack. Usually a common, occasionally something expensive.

Per pack

$0.62

Whole box

$22.32

$13.68 kept

10%

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$0.36

Whole box

$12.96

$0.00 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Draft Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Ad Nauseam

$145.73

You'll open one about 1 every 2 boxes

#2 most valuable

Kresh the Bloodbraided

$75.72

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

#3 most valuable

Mayael the Anima

$66.74

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

Tezzeret the Seeker

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$45.14

Memory Erosion

rareabout 1 every 2 boxes

$35.79

Ajani Vengeant

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$33.50

Godsire

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$30.31

Elspeth, Knight-Errant

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$27.75

Sharuum the Hegemon

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$26.67

Cunning Lethemancer

rareabout 1 every 2 boxes

$22.42

Every rare and mythic in the set

68 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Tezzeret the Seeker	mythic	$36.27	$45.14	0.31
Ad Nauseam	rare	$10.30	$145.73	0.62
Elspeth, Knight-Errant	mythic	$9.10	$27.75	0.31
Memory Erosion	rare	$7.20	$35.79	0.62
Lich's Mirror	mythic	$6.84	$20.00	0.31
Ethersworn Canonist	rare	$5.81	$16.08	0.62
Cunning Lethemancer	rare	$5.34	$22.42	0.62
Death Baron	rare	$4.80	$15.15	0.62
Godsire	mythic	$4.27	$30.31	0.31
Prince of Thralls	mythic	$4.05	$14.02	0.31
Ajani Vengeant	mythic	$3.99	$33.50	0.31
Scourglass	rare	$3.85	$13.76	0.62
Invincible Hymn	rare	$3.53	$17.89	0.62
Titanic Ultimatum	rare	$3.29	$9.83	0.62
Quietus Spike	rare	$3.29	$9.31	0.62
Mycoloth	rare	$3.23	$14.90	0.62
Sarkhan Vol	mythic	$3.19	$10.72	0.31
Knight of the White Orchid	rare	$2.63	$14.30	0.62
Knight-Captain of Eos	rare	$2.32	$13.45	0.62
Keeper of Progenitus	rare	$2.16	$3.07	0.62

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Conflux

$219 of cards

$453 short of the box price

Eventide

$443 of cards

$407 short of the box price

Alara Reborn

$220 of cards

$539 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $225.00. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Shards of Alara

Shards of Alara Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $225.00 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?