What is the expected value of a Unstable Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Unstable Draft Booster Box gets you about $253.80 of cards at market price, against a market price of $190.98 for the box — a ratio of 1.33x. Selling those cards would return about $96.84 after fees, because 32% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Unstable Draft Booster Box worth opening?

Measured against buying the singles, yes: at $190.98 a box the cards inside are worth about $62.82 more than the box costs. Measured as an investment, no — reselling them would return about $96.84 after fees and postage, which is less than the box costs. Check the price you would actually pay.

How much would you get back selling a Unstable Draft Booster Box?

About $96.84, against $253.80 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 32% of this box's value sits under that line.

Unstable

Cards inside $253.80+$63 ahead

Unstable

Unstable Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $253.80 of cards, on average. A box costs $191 right now, so that means you're +$62.82 ahead.

Cards inside

$253.80

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$191

TCGplayer market · from $180

Difference

+$62.82

In your favour

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 16, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$253.80 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$253.80

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$96.84

About 38% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

32%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 32% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$500

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 38% of $254.

+$62.82

per box, in your favour

The cards are worth more than the box

At $191 a box you'd come out about $62.82 ahead on average. Over many boxes that edge is real — but any single box can still be a dud.

Break-even price

$253.80

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$2.97

Whole box

$106.92

$43.92 kept

42%

Basic foil

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.37

Whole box

$49.32

$40.32 kept

19%

Commons

The bulk of the pack. Individually worth very little.

Per pack

$0.90

Whole box

$32.40

$1.08 kept

13%

Uncommons

Three per pack. Occasionally one is worth real money.

Per pack

$0.56

Whole box

$20.16

$0.36 kept

Rares

The guaranteed rare in every pack.

Per pack

$0.54

Whole box

$19.44

$4.68 kept

Foil (any rarity)

The guaranteed shiny card in every pack. Usually a common, occasionally something expensive.

Per pack

$0.34

Whole box

$12.24

$5.40 kept

Contraption

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.31

Whole box

$11.16

$0.72 kept

Contraption foil

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.05

Whole box

$1.80

$0.36 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Draft Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Island

$86.45

You'll open one about 7.1 per box

#2 most valuable

Forest

$50.12

You'll open one about 7.1 per box

#3 most valuable

Swamp

$48.29

You'll open one about 7.1 per box

Plains

commonabout 7.1 per box

$48.07

Mountain

commonabout 7.1 per box

$43.32

Urza, Academy Headmaster

mythicabout 1 every 2 boxes

$32.39

Garbage Elemental

uncommonabout 1 every 3 boxes

$19.99

Earl of Squirrel

rareabout 1 per box

$18.07

Extremely Slow Zombie

commonabout 1 per box

$14.64

Sly Spy

uncommonabout 1 every 3 boxes

$13.19

Every rare and mythic in the set

76 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Everythingamajig	rare	$4.30	$5.48	0.16
Earl of Squirrel	rare	$4.10	$18.07	0.93
Urza, Academy Headmaster	mythic	$2.59	$32.39	0.47
Very Cryptic Command	rare	$2.41	—	0.16
Very Cryptic Command	rare	$2.35	$10.60	0.16
Very Cryptic Command	rare	$1.95	$7.37	0.16
Very Cryptic Command	rare	$1.95	—	0.16
Everythingamajig	rare	$1.72	$2.28	0.16
Very Cryptic Command	rare	$1.72	—	0.16
Sword of Dungeons & Dragons	mythic	$1.63	$10.30	0.47
Very Cryptic Command	rare	$1.47	$4.87	0.16
Everythingamajig	rare	$1.25	—	0.16
Everythingamajig	rare	$1.24	$11.50	0.16
Everythingamajig	rare	$1.18	$3.38	0.16
Ineffable Blessing	rare	$1.14	$3.64	0.16
Ineffable Blessing	rare	$1.08	$2.34	0.16
Everythingamajig	rare	$1.06	$1.64	0.16
Ineffable Blessing	rare	$0.77	$8.48	0.16
Ineffable Blessing	rare	$0.76	—	0.16
Baron Von Count	mythic	$0.69	$3.02	0.47

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Rivals of Ixalan

$177 of cards

$28 short of the box price

Iconic Masters

$401 of cards

no box price

Masters 25

$425 of cards

no box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $253.80. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Unstable

Unstable Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $253.80 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?