What is the expected value of a Fallout Collector Booster Box?

Opening a Fallout Collector Booster Box gets you about $1048.68 of cards at market price, against a market price of $1834.75 for the box — a ratio of 0.57x. Selling those cards would return about $699.72 after fees, because 5% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Fallout Collector Booster Box worth opening?

No: at $1834.75 a box the cards inside are worth about $786.07 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $1048.68 or less, and less again — about $699.72 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Fallout Collector Booster Box?

About $699.72, against $1048.68 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 5% of this box's value sits under that line.

Fallout

Cards inside $1048.68$786 short

Fallout

Fallout Collector Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $1048.68 of cards, on average. A box costs $1,835 right now, so that means you're $786.07 short.

Cards inside

$1048.68

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$1,835

TCGplayer market · from $1,941

Difference

-$786.07

Against you

Packs in the box

Several rares, foils and alt-art cards in each

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 16, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$1048.68 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$1048.68

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$699.72

About 67% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 5% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$4,600

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 67% of $1,049.

-$786.07

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $1,835 a box you'd come up about $786.07 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$1048.68

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Finale

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$21.49

Whole box

$257.88

$205.20 kept

25%

Showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$11.37

Whole box

$136.44

$101.64 kept

13%

Surge wildcard

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$8.30

Whole box

$99.60

$70.32 kept

Surge extended new

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$5.92

Whole box

$71.04

$45.96 kept

Surge extended reprint

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$5.91

Whole box

$70.92

$44.88 kept

Mutant menace

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$4.61

Whole box

$55.32

$34.08 kept

Science

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$4.04

Whole box

$48.48

$29.88 kept

Land

The land slot. In recent sets this can be a valuable nonbasic.

Per pack

$3.98

Whole box

$47.76

$25.44 kept

Scrappy survivors

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$3.91

Whole box

$46.92

$28.20 kept

Hail caesar

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$3.38

Whole box

$40.56

$22.92 kept

Foil extended reprint

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$3.24

Whole box

$38.88

$20.88 kept

Foil extended new

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$2.99

Whole box

$35.88

$19.20 kept

Standard rm

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$2.88

Whole box

$34.56

$18.48 kept

Extended-art reprint

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$2.87

Whole box

$34.44

$17.16 kept

Extended-art new

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$2.50

Whole box

$30.00

$15.48 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Collector Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Luck Bobblehead

$1500.00

You'll open one about 1 every 100 boxes

#2 most valuable

Perception Bobblehead

$1043.38

You'll open one about 1 every 100 boxes

#3 most valuable

Endurance Bobblehead

$800.00

You'll open one about 1 every 100 boxes

Intelligence Bobblehead

uncommonabout 1 every 100 boxes

$671.38

Agility Bobblehead

uncommonabout 1 every 100 boxes

$641.20

Sol Ring

mythicabout 1 every 33 boxes

$273.42

Arcane Signet

uncommonabout 1 every 33 boxes

$206.09

The Wise Mothman

mythicabout 1 every 33 boxes

$191.70

Command Tower

uncommonabout 1 every 33 boxes

$169.74

Caesar, Legion's Emperor

mythicabout 1 every 33 boxes

$133.69

Every rare and mythic in the set

776 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Crucible of Worlds	mythic	$34.23	$36.27	0.65
Sol Ring	mythic	$30.31	$40.87	0.65
Codsworth, Handy Helper	rare	$28.84	$35.70	0.28
Wasteland	rare	$25.39	$26.22	0.65
Farewell	rare	$24.91	$27.47	0.65
Ravages of War	mythic	$23.31	$22.98	0.65
Walking Ballista	rare	$23.23	$26.95	0.65
Vigor	rare	$17.62	$20.32	0.65
Power Fist	rare	$16.82	$17.70	0.28
Codsworth, Handy Helper	rare	$15.49	$28.39	0.18
Heroic Intervention	rare	$15.16	$16.12	0.18
Rampaging Yao Guai	rare	$14.10	$12.62	0.28
The Wise Mothman	mythic	$13.94	$15.49	0.65
Guardian Project	rare	$13.79	$14.21	0.18
Heroic Intervention	rare	$13.25	$14.19	0.29
Guardian Project	rare	$13.21	$14.95	0.29
Power Fist	rare	$12.05	$15.85	0.18
Atomize	rare	$11.82	$13.10	0.65
Branching Evolution	rare	$11.65	$12.99	0.29
Hullbreaker Horror	rare	$11.61	$13.81	0.65

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Outlaws of Thunder Junction

$288 of cards

+$91 ahead of the box price

Murders at Karlov Manor

$304 of cards

$93 short of the box price

Outlaws of Thunder Junction

$329 of cards

$147 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $1048.68. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Fallout

Fallout Collector Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $1048.68 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?