What is the expected value of a Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Box?

Opening a Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Box gets you about $294.12 of cards at market price. Selling them would return about $195.72 after fees. We do not hold a current list price for it, so compare both figures against what a sealed box actually costs you today.

Is the Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Box worth opening?

No: at MSRP the cards inside are worth about $99.69 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $294.12 or less, and less again — about $195.72 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Box?

About $195.72, against $294.12 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 14% of this box's value sits under that line.

Murders at Karlov Manor

Cards inside $294.12$100 short of list

Murders at Karlov Manor

Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $294.12 of cards, on average. A box costs $394 right now, so that means you're $99.69 short.

Cards inside

$294.12

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$394

TCGplayer market · from $380

Difference

-$99.69

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked September 2, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated August 29, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$294.12 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$294.12

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$195.72

About 67% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

14%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 14% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$1,000

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 67% of $294.

-$99.69

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $394 a box you'd come up about $99.69 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$294.12

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Foil rare mythic showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$12.86

Whole box

$154.32

$122.04 kept

52%

Rare mythic showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$4.37

Whole box

$52.44

$37.56 kept

18%

Foil rare or mythic

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$2.73

Whole box

$32.76

$21.24 kept

11%

Extended-art main rare mythic

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$1.06

Whole box

$12.72

$5.52 kept

Extended-art commander rare mythic

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$0.99

Whole box

$11.88

$6.72 kept

Foil uncommons

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.85

Whole box

$10.20

$1.44 kept

Foil commons

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.70

Whole box

$8.40

$0.48 kept

Foil fullart basic

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.41

Whole box

$4.92

$0.00 kept

Foil common uncommon showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.28

Whole box

$3.36

$0.48 kept

Common uncommon showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$0.20

Whole box

$2.40

$0.12 kept

Foil extended commander rare mythic

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.06

Whole box

$0.72

$0.12 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Play Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Aurelia, the Law Above

$699.99

You'll open one about 1 every 50 boxes

#2 most valuable

Niv-Mizzet, Guildpact

$695.00

You'll open one about 1 every 50 boxes

#3 most valuable

Vannifar, Evolved Enigma

$600.00

You'll open one about 1 every 50 boxes

Trostani, Three Whispers

mythicabout 1 every 50 boxes

$500.00

Rakdos, Patron of Chaos

mythicabout 1 every 50 boxes

$400.00

Lazav, Wearer of Faces

rareabout 1 every 50 boxes

$329.99

Gamble

mythicabout 1 every 17 boxes

$88.70

Field of the Dead

mythicabout 1 every 17 boxes

$83.97

Victimize

mythicabout 1 every 17 boxes

$83.12

Delney, Streetwise Lookout

mythicabout 1 every 17 boxes

$72.69

Every rare and mythic in the set

258 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Field of the Dead	mythic	$40.06	$83.97	0.06
Delney, Streetwise Lookout	mythic	$34.38	$39.13	0.08
Delney, Streetwise Lookout	mythic	$33.46	$43.57	0.19
Trouble in Pairs	rare	$28.63	—	0.26
Gamble	mythic	$22.01	$88.70	0.06
Underground Mortuary	rare	$20.74	$37.00	0.37
Undercity Sewers	rare	$20.61	$58.09	0.37
Thundering Falls	rare	$19.75	$49.21	0.37
Meticulous Archive	rare	$17.61	$37.41	0.37
Victimize	mythic	$16.60	$83.12	0.06
Ghostly Prison	mythic	$16.59	$51.80	0.06
Thundering Falls	rare	$16.01	$16.66	0.15
Hedge Maze	rare	$15.59	$36.78	0.37
Shadowy Backstreet	rare	$15.58	$30.90	0.37
Underground Mortuary	rare	$14.44	$16.68	0.15
Undercity Sewers	rare	$14.30	$17.66	0.15
Raucous Theater	rare	$14.01	$28.10	0.37
Elegant Parlor	rare	$13.14	$28.87	0.37
Meticulous Archive	rare	$12.31	$13.58	0.15
Commercial District	rare	$12.13	$21.71	0.37

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Fallout

$793 of cards

$1,005 short of list

Murders at Karlov Manor

$225 of cards

+$85 ahead of list

Outlaws of Thunder Junction

$273 of cards

+$80 ahead of list

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $294.12. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Murders at Karlov Manor

Murders at Karlov Manor Collector Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $294.12 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?