What is the expected value of a Ninth Edition Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Ninth Edition Draft Booster Box gets you about $308.88 of cards at market price, against a market price of $899.88 for the box — a ratio of 0.34x. Selling those cards would return about $128.88 after fees, because 36% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Ninth Edition Draft Booster Box worth opening?

No: at $899.88 a box the cards inside are worth about $591.00 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $308.88 or less, and less again — about $128.88 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Ninth Edition Draft Booster Box?

About $128.88, against $308.88 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 36% of this box's value sits under that line.

Ninth Edition

Cards inside $308.88$591 short

Ninth Edition

Ninth Edition Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $308.88 of cards, on average. A box costs $900 right now, so that means you're $591.00 short.

Cards inside

$308.88

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$900

TCGplayer market · from $900

Difference

-$591.00

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 17, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$308.88 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$308.88

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$128.88

About 42% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

36%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 36% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$2,275

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 42% of $309.

-$591.00

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $900 a box you'd come up about $591.00 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$308.88

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Rares

The guaranteed rare in every pack.

Per pack

$3.20

Whole box

$115.20

$70.92 kept

37%

Commons

The bulk of the pack. Individually worth very little.

Per pack

$2.75

Whole box

$99.00

$28.44 kept

32%

Uncommons

Three per pack. Occasionally one is worth real money.

Per pack

$1.38

Whole box

$49.68

$9.36 kept

16%

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$0.43

Whole box

$15.48

$0.00 kept

Foil commons

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.30

Whole box

$10.80

$6.48 kept

Foil uncommons

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.26

Whole box

$9.36

$6.84 kept

Foil rares

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.23

Whole box

$8.28

$6.48 kept

Foil basic land

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.03

Whole box

$1.08

$0.36 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Draft Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Fellwar Stone

$206.75

You'll open one about 1 every 100 boxes

#2 most valuable

Biorhythm

$100.03

You'll open one Not in this booster

#3 most valuable

Grave Pact

$90.00

You'll open one Not in this booster

Seething Song

commonabout 1 every 20 boxes

$88.66

Underground River

rareNot in this booster

$79.99

Rathi Dragon

rareNot in this booster

$69.99

Elvish Champion

rareNot in this booster

$64.99

Seedborn Muse

rareNot in this booster

$60.64

Brushland

rareNot in this booster

$60.00

Summer Bloom

uncommonabout 1 every 100 boxes

$49.53

Every rare and mythic in the set

220 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Grave Pact	rare	$41.28	—	0.32
Biorhythm	rare	$34.70	—	0.32
Elvish Champion	rare	$32.20	—	0.32
Teferi's Puzzle Box	rare	$19.22	—	0.32
Coat of Arms	rare	$16.59	—	0.32
Seedborn Muse	rare	$15.74	—	0.32
Greater Good	rare	$11.01	—	0.32
Lord of the Undead	rare	$10.05	—	0.32
Blood Moon	rare	$7.79	—	0.32
Defense Grid	rare	$7.22	—	0.32
Natural Affinity	rare	$6.55	—	0.32
Furnace of Rath	rare	$6.21	—	0.32
Phyrexian Arena	rare	$6.07	—	0.32
Goblin King	rare	$5.86	—	0.32
Howling Mine	rare	$5.34	—	0.32
Trade Routes	rare	$5.33	—	0.32
Blinding Angel	rare	$5.29	—	0.32
Elvish Piper	rare	$5.03	—	0.32
Underworld Dreams	rare	$5.02	—	0.32
Traumatize	rare	$4.83	—	0.32

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Ravnica: City of Guilds

$306 of cards

$870 short of the box price

Saviors of Kamigawa

$390 of cards

$266 short of the box price

Guildpact

$205 of cards

$405 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $308.88. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Ninth Edition

Ninth Edition Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $308.88 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?