What is the expected value of a Zendikar Rising Collector Booster Box?

Opening a Zendikar Rising Collector Booster Box gets you about $185.40 of cards at market price. Selling them would return about $104.76 after fees. We do not hold a current list price for it, so compare both figures against what a sealed box actually costs you today.

Is the Zendikar Rising Collector Booster Box worth opening?

No: at MSRP the cards inside are worth about $287.61 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $185.40 or less, and less again — about $104.76 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Zendikar Rising Collector Booster Box?

About $104.76, against $185.40 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 23% of this box's value sits under that line.

Zendikar Rising

Cards inside $185.40$288 short of list

Zendikar Rising

Zendikar Rising Collector Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $185.40 of cards, on average. A box costs $473 right now, so that means you're $287.61 short.

Cards inside

$185.40

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$473

TCGplayer market · from $500

Difference

-$287.61

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked September 2, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated August 29, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$185.40 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$185.40

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$104.76

About 57% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

23%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 23% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$1,200

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 57% of $185.

-$287.61

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $473 a box you'd come up about $287.61 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$185.40

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Foil expedition

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$5.62

Whole box

$67.44

$54.36 kept

36%

Foil rare mythic showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$2.22

Whole box

$26.64

$16.44 kept

14%

Extended-art rare or mythic

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$2.06

Whole box

$24.72

$14.16 kept

13%

Rare mythic showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$1.71

Whole box

$20.52

$11.04 kept

11%

Foil rare or mythic

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$1.30

Whole box

$15.60

$8.04 kept

Foil commons

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.99

Whole box

$11.88

$0.24 kept

Foil uncommons

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.48

Whole box

$5.76

$0.36 kept

Foil basic land

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.43

Whole box

$5.16

$0.00 kept

Common uncommon showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$0.35

Whole box

$4.20

$0.12 kept

Foil common uncommon showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.29

Whole box

$3.48

$0.00 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Play Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Ancient Tomb

$154.47

You'll open one about 1 every 14 boxes

#2 most valuable

Cavern of Souls

$65.07

You'll open one about 1 every 14 boxes

#3 most valuable

Polluted Delta

$63.16

You'll open one about 1 every 14 boxes

Prismatic Vista

mythicabout 1 every 14 boxes

$60.38

Scalding Tarn

mythicabout 1 every 14 boxes

$52.48

Misty Rainforest

mythicabout 1 every 14 boxes

$50.73

Flooded Strand

mythicabout 1 every 14 boxes

$48.53

Verdant Catacombs

mythicabout 1 every 14 boxes

$46.13

Windswept Heath

mythicabout 1 every 14 boxes

$44.10

Arid Mesa

mythicabout 1 every 14 boxes

$43.80

Every rare and mythic in the set

168 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Ancient Tomb	mythic	$92.64	$154.47	0.07
Cavern of Souls	mythic	$43.77	$65.07	0.07
Scalding Tarn	mythic	$37.38	$52.48	0.07
Misty Rainforest	mythic	$35.22	$50.73	0.07
Prismatic Vista	mythic	$35.09	$60.38	0.07
Marsh Flats	mythic	$31.86	$41.06	0.07
Polluted Delta	mythic	$31.70	$63.16	0.07
Verdant Catacombs	mythic	$30.96	$46.13	0.07
Arid Mesa	mythic	$30.48	$43.80	0.07
Bloodstained Mire	mythic	$29.74	$40.93	0.07
Flooded Strand	mythic	$29.13	$48.53	0.07
Luxury Suite	mythic	$27.33	$28.53	0.07
Wooded Foothills	mythic	$25.94	$39.23	0.07
Strip Mine	mythic	$25.76	$31.13	0.07
Wasteland	mythic	$25.28	$25.98	0.07
Morphic Pool	mythic	$24.63	$31.64	0.07
Windswept Heath	mythic	$24.62	$44.10	0.07
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild	mythic	$22.84	$29.15	0.29
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle	mythic	$22.29	$29.13	0.07
Spire Garden	mythic	$19.12	$20.34	0.07

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Commander Legends

$449 of cards

+$171 ahead of list

Zendikar Rising

$123 of cards

$30 short of list

Commander Legends

$365 of cards

$387 short of list

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $185.40. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Zendikar Rising

Zendikar Rising Collector Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $185.40 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?