What is the expected value of a Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box gets you about $122.76 of cards at market price. Selling them would return about $24.84 after fees. We do not hold a current list price for it, so compare both figures against what a sealed box actually costs you today.

Is the Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box worth opening?

No: at MSRP the cards inside are worth about $30.50 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $122.76 or less, and less again — about $24.84 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box?

About $24.84, against $122.76 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 70% of this box's value sits under that line.

Zendikar Rising

Cards inside $122.76$30 short of list

Zendikar Rising

Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $122.76 of cards, on average. A box costs $153 right now, so that means you're $30.50 short.

Cards inside

$122.76

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$153

TCGplayer market · from $153

Difference

-$30.50

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked September 2, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated August 29, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$122.76 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$122.76

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$24.84

About 20% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

70%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 70% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$400

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 20% of $123.

-$30.50

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $153 a box you'd come up about $30.50 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$122.76

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Common with showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$1.41

Whole box

$50.76

$1.44 kept

41%

Single-faced rare mythic with showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$1.17

Whole box

$42.12

$21.60 kept

34%

Single-faced uncommon with showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$0.39

Whole box

$14.04

$0.36 kept

11%

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$0.30

Whole box

$10.80

$0.00 kept

Foil incl. showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.13

Whole box

$4.68

$1.44 kept

Double-faced rare mythic with showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$0.00

Whole box

$0.00

$0.00 kept

Double-faced uncommon with showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$0.00

Whole box

$0.00

$0.00 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Play Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Ashaya, Soul of the Wild

$16.75

You'll open one about 1 every 4 boxes

#2 most valuable

Moraug, Fury of Akoum

$16.35

You'll open one about 1 every 11 boxes

#3 most valuable

Ancient Greenwarden

$13.72

You'll open one about 1 every 4 boxes

Angel of Destiny

mythicabout 1 every 4 boxes

$11.95

Scute Swarm

rareabout 1 every 6 boxes

$11.69

Scute Swarm

rareabout 1 every 3 boxes

$9.29

Lotus Cobra

rareabout 1 every 6 boxes

$7.95

Lithoform Engine

mythicabout 1 every 4 boxes

$7.82

Forsaken Monument

mythicabout 1 every 4 boxes

$7.31

Moraug, Fury of Akoum

mythicabout 1 every 6 boxes

$6.75

Every rare and mythic in the set

79 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild	mythic	$16.21	$16.75	0.26
Ancient Greenwarden	mythic	$12.73	$13.72	0.26
Angel of Destiny	mythic	$11.95	$9.13	0.26
Scute Swarm	rare	$8.82	$11.69	0.17
Scute Swarm	rare	$8.70	$9.29	0.34
Lithoform Engine	mythic	$7.74	$7.82	0.26
Forsaken Monument	mythic	$6.91	$7.31	0.26
Maddening Cacophony	rare	$6.10	$6.62	0.51
Lotus Cobra	rare	$5.99	$7.95	0.17
Moraug, Fury of Akoum	mythic	$5.95	$6.75	0.17
Lotus Cobra	rare	$5.80	$6.55	0.34
Moraug, Fury of Akoum	mythic	$5.64	$16.35	0.09
Omnath, Locus of Creation	mythic	$4.66	$5.06	0.17
Omnath, Locus of Creation	mythic	$4.18	$6.00	0.09
Valakut Exploration	rare	$4.02	$4.78	0.34
Soul Shatter	rare	$3.70	$4.26	0.51
Valakut Exploration	rare	$2.81	$4.66	0.17
Leyline Tyrant	mythic	$2.42	$3.36	0.26
Archon of Emeria	rare	$2.20	$1.73	0.51
Nissa of Shadowed Boughs	mythic	$2.08	$2.28	0.17

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Zendikar Rising

$185 of cards

$288 short of list

Zendikar Rising

$134 of cards

$54 short of list

Commander Legends

$449 of cards

+$171 ahead of list

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $122.76. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Zendikar Rising

Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $122.76 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?