What is the expected value of a Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box gets you about $198.00 of cards at market price. Selling them would return about $83.88 after fees. We do not hold a current list price for it, so compare both figures against what a sealed box actually costs you today.

Is the Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box worth opening?

No: at MSRP the cards inside are worth about $18.09 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $198.00 or less, and less again — about $83.88 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box?

About $83.88, against $198.00 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 37% of this box's value sits under that line.

Conspiracy: Take the Crown

Cards inside $198.00$18 short of list

Conspiracy: Take the Crown

Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $198.00 of cards, on average. A box costs $216 right now, so that means you're $18.09 short.

Cards inside

$198.00

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$216

TCGplayer market · from $235

Difference

-$18.09

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked September 2, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated December 6, 2025

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$198.00 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$198.00

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$83.88

About 42% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

37%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 37% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$550

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 42% of $198.

-$18.09

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $216 a box you'd come up about $18.09 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$198.00

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Nonconspiracy rare mythic

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$2.82

Whole box

$101.52

$61.20 kept

51%

Nonconspiracy uncommon

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.13

Whole box

$40.68

$9.72 kept

21%

Nonconspiracy common

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.92

Whole box

$33.12

$1.44 kept

17%

Nonconspiracy foil

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.51

Whole box

$18.36

$11.16 kept

Conspiracy

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.11

Whole box

$3.96

$0.36 kept

Conspiracy foil

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.01

Whole box

$0.36

$0.00 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Play Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Recruiter of the Guard

$59.36

You'll open one about 1 every 1 boxes

#2 most valuable

Leovold, Emissary of Trest

$56.49

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

#3 most valuable

Expropriate

$50.03

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

Burgeoning

rareabout 1 every 1 boxes

$44.70

Selvala, Heart of the Wilds

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$37.99

Queen Marchesa

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$34.39

Kaya, Ghost Assassin

mythicabout 1 every 100 boxes

$31.86

Berserk

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$29.14

Show and Tell

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$27.43

Horn of Greed

rareabout 1 every 1 boxes

$25.01

Every rare and mythic in the set

65 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Burgeoning	rare	$32.37	$44.70	0.70
Horn of Greed	rare	$17.36	$25.01	0.70
Berserk	mythic	$16.18	$29.14	0.35
Expropriate	mythic	$12.66	$50.03	0.35
Show and Tell	mythic	$12.36	$27.43	0.35
Birds of Paradise	rare	$9.66	$14.66	0.70
Platinum Angel	mythic	$8.04	$13.10	0.35
Subterranean Tremors	mythic	$8.03	$13.99	0.35
Recruiter of the Guard	rare	$6.35	$59.36	0.70
Selvala, Heart of the Wilds	mythic	$6.18	$37.99	0.35
Kami of the Crescent Moon	rare	$5.03	$9.95	0.70
Phyrexian Arena	rare	$4.81	$5.61	0.70
Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast	mythic	$4.67	$13.23	0.35
Avatar of Woe	mythic	$3.89	$7.51	0.35
Selvala's Stampede	rare	$3.78	$20.52	0.70
Capital Punishment	rare	$3.19	$4.76	0.70
Keeper of Keys	rare	$2.61	$4.74	0.70
Leovold, Emissary of Trest	mythic	$2.45	$56.49	0.35
Kaya, Ghost Assassin	mythic	$2.30	—	0.34
Followed Footsteps	rare	$2.14	$5.88	0.70

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Kaladesh

$180 of cards

$329 short of list

Eldritch Moon

$132 of cards

$159 short of list

Aether Revolt

$156 of cards

$39 short of list

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $198.00. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Conspiracy: Take the Crown

Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $198.00 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?