What is the expected value of a Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box?

Opening a Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box gets you about $243.36 of cards at market price, against a market price of $221.78 for the box — a ratio of 1.1x. Selling those cards would return about $98.28 after fees, because 39% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box worth opening?

Measured against buying the singles, yes: at $221.78 a box the cards inside are worth about $21.58 more than the box costs. Measured as an investment, no — reselling them would return about $98.28 after fees and postage, which is less than the box costs. Check the price you would actually pay.

How much would you get back selling a Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box?

About $98.28, against $243.36 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 39% of this box's value sits under that line.

Conspiracy: Take the Crown

Cards inside $243.36+$22 ahead

Conspiracy: Take the Crown

Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $243.36 of cards, on average. A box costs $222 right now, so that means you're +$21.58 ahead.

Cards inside

$243.36

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$222

TCGplayer market · from $220

Difference

+$21.58

In your favour

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 17, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$243.36 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$243.36

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$98.28

About 40% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

39%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 39% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$575

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 40% of $243.

+$21.58

per box, in your favour

The cards are worth more than the box

At $222 a box you'd come out about $21.58 ahead on average. Over many boxes that edge is real — but any single box can still be a dud.

Break-even price

$243.36

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Nonconspiracy rare mythic

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$3.30

Whole box

$118.80

$73.08 kept

49%

Nonconspiracy common

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.56

Whole box

$56.16

$1.44 kept

23%

Nonconspiracy uncommon

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$1.21

Whole box

$43.56

$10.44 kept

18%

Nonconspiracy foil

One of the card positions in every pack of this product.

Per pack

$0.57

Whole box

$20.52

$12.96 kept

Everything else

2 smaller slots — alternate-art pairs, bonus sheets and the like, each under 2% of the box.

Per pack

$0.11

Whole box

$3.96

$0.36 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Draft Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Selvala, Heart of the Wilds

$84.99

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

#2 most valuable

Queen Marchesa

$66.33

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

#3 most valuable

Leovold, Emissary of Trest

$57.21

You'll open one about 1 every 3 boxes

Recruiter of the Guard

rareabout 1 every 1 boxes

$51.33

Expropriate

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$50.55

Burgeoning

rareabout 1 every 1 boxes

$47.01

Ghostly Prison

uncommonabout 1 per box

$40.74

Stunt Double

rareabout 1 every 1 boxes

$40.05

Show and Tell

mythicabout 1 every 3 boxes

$38.02

Kaya, Ghost Assassin

mythicabout 1 every 100 boxes

$29.00

Every rare and mythic in the set

65 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Burgeoning	rare	$33.18	$47.01	0.70
Show and Tell	mythic	$19.50	$38.02	0.35
Expropriate	mythic	$15.72	$50.55	0.35
Horn of Greed	rare	$15.63	$23.53	0.70
Berserk	mythic	$13.27	—	0.35
Birds of Paradise	rare	$12.11	$17.69	0.70
Platinum Angel	mythic	$10.92	$24.35	0.35
Kami of the Crescent Moon	rare	$7.93	$21.62	0.70
Recruiter of the Guard	rare	$6.96	$51.33	0.70
Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast	mythic	$6.18	$11.14	0.35
Capital Punishment	rare	$5.77	$6.18	0.70
Selvala, Heart of the Wilds	mythic	$5.56	$84.99	0.35
Subterranean Tremors	mythic	$4.99	$11.00	0.35
Phyrexian Arena	rare	$4.51	$9.05	0.70
Stunt Double	rare	$4.37	$40.05	0.70
Keeper of Keys	rare	$4.09	$5.36	0.70
Avatar of Woe	mythic	$4.03	$10.12	0.35
Kaya, Ghost Assassin	mythic	$3.62	—	0.34
Leovold, Emissary of Trest	mythic	$3.54	$57.21	0.35
Selvala's Stampede	rare	$2.91	$19.39	0.70

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Kaladesh

$211 of cards

$326 short of the box price

Eldritch Moon

$129 of cards

$169 short of the box price

Aether Revolt

$162 of cards

$41 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $243.36. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Conspiracy: Take the Crown

Conspiracy: Take the Crown Draft Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $243.36 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?