What is the expected value of a Zendikar Rising Set Booster Box?

Opening a Zendikar Rising Set Booster Box gets you about $138.90 of cards at market price, against a market price of $191.38 for the box — a ratio of 0.73x. Selling those cards would return about $51.00 after fees, because 48% of that value sits in cards worth more as bulk than as a listing.

Is the Zendikar Rising Set Booster Box worth opening?

No: at $191.38 a box the cards inside are worth about $52.48 less than the box costs, and buying the individual cards you want will be cheaper. The box only breaks even at $138.90 or less, and less again — about $51.00 — if the plan is to resell.

How much would you get back selling a Zendikar Rising Set Booster Box?

About $51.00, against $138.90 of cards at market price. Market price is what a buyer pays, not what a seller receives: TCGplayer takes 10.75% commission plus a 2.5% and $0.30 transaction fee, and posting a single card costs around $1.10. Below roughly $1.66 a card is worth more in a bulk lot, at about $0.04 a rare, than listed and posted — and 48% of this box's value sits under that line.

Zendikar Rising

Cards inside $138.90$52 short

Zendikar Rising

Zendikar Rising Set Booster Box

Open one box and you'll get $138.90 of cards, on average. A box costs $191 right now, so that means you're $52.48 short.

Cards inside

$138.90

Everything in the box, at today's prices

Box costs now

$191

TCGplayer market · from $185

Difference

-$52.48

Against you

Packs in the box

Each holds at least one rare or mythic

Box price from TCGplayer, checked October 12, 2026 · Card prices from Scryfall (TCGplayer market data) · last updated October 16, 2026

This is an average. A few very expensive cards pull it upward, so most individual boxes land below it. Opening one box is closer to a lottery ticket than an investment — the number below tells you whether the lottery is priced fairly.

And if you sold the cards?

$138.90 is what the cards are worth to a buyer. It is not what you would be paid for them.

Worth to a buyer

$138.90

Every card at market price

What you'd keep

$51.00

About 37% of it, sold card by card

Stuck as bulk

48%

Cards worth more by the thousand than listed

Two things separate the two figures. Fees take 10.75% commission plus 2.5% and $0.30 on every order, and postage on a single card runs about $1.10 — a bite a cheap card cannot absorb. And 48% of the box's value sits in cards below roughly $1.66, the point where a card is worth more thrown into a bulk lot at $0.04 a rare than listed, packed and posted. Selling the whole box to a buylist in one go pays less again.

Assumes one card per order, which is the cautious reading — a buyer taking several cards at once splits the fixed costs between them. Fees are TCGplayer Marketplace rates as of February 2026; bulk rates are current cash buylist.

What does a box cost you?

We start from what a box costs right now. Put in the price you're actually being asked to pay and the answer updates.

Box price

$20$500

I'd be selling the cards. Values every card at what you'd be paid for it rather than what it sells for — fees and postage on the ones worth listing, bulk rates on the ones that aren't. Comes to about 37% of $139.

-$52.48

per box, against you

You would do better buying the singles

At $191 a box you'd come up about $52.48 short on average. Buying the individual cards you want will usually cost less.

Break-even price

$138.90

Pay less than this and you're ahead on average.

Where the value comes from

Every pack has a few fixed positions — a guaranteed rare, a wildcard, a foil. Here's what each one is worth across the whole box.

Rare mythic with showcase

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$1.18

Whole box

$35.40

$18.30 kept

25%

The List

A reprint pulled from a rotating list of older cards. It replaces a common in a small share of packs.

Per pack

$1.17

Whole box

$35.10

$23.70 kept

25%

Commons

The bulk of the pack. Individually worth very little.

Per pack

$0.60

Whole box

$18.00

$0.30 kept

13%

Wildcard

An extra card of any rarity. Most of the time it is a common or uncommon, but it can be a second rare.

Per pack

$0.56

Whole box

$16.80

$4.80 kept

12%

Foil incl. showcase

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.41

Whole box

$12.30

$3.30 kept

Uncommons

Three per pack. Occasionally one is worth real money.

Per pack

$0.31

Whole box

$9.30

$0.30 kept

Basic land

The basic land. Worth essentially nothing unless it is a full-art foil.

Per pack

$0.24

Whole box

$7.20

$0.00 kept

Showcase or dfc

A special treatment — alternate frames and art that appear at a lower rate.

Per pack

$0.10

Whole box

$3.00

$0.00 kept

Foil basic land

A foil version of this slot.

Per pack

$0.07

Whole box

$2.10

$0.00 kept

The cards you're hoping to hit

The ten most valuable cards a Set Booster can produce, and roughly how often one shows up.

#1 most valuable

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

$57.34

You'll open one about 1 every 33 boxes

#2 most valuable

Cruel Tutor

$52.13

You'll open one about 1 every 33 boxes

#3 most valuable

Mycosynth Golem

$49.60

You'll open one about 1 every 33 boxes

Food Chain

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$41.51

Phyrexian Tower

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$40.05

Enlightened Tutor

uncommonabout 1 every 33 boxes

$38.69

Akroma's Memorial

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$36.53

Scroll Rack

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$35.94

Parallax Wave

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$28.81

Thrumming Stone

rareabout 1 every 33 boxes

$26.97

Every rare and mythic in the set

248 cards. “Copies per box” is how many of that exact card you'd expect from one box on average — under 1 means you usually won't see it at all.

			Foil price
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx	rare	$57.34	—	0.03
Cruel Tutor	rare	$52.13	—	0.03
Mycosynth Golem	rare	$49.60	—	0.03
Food Chain	rare	$41.51	—	0.03
Phyrexian Tower	rare	$40.05	—	0.03
Akroma's Memorial	rare	$36.53	—	0.03
Scroll Rack	rare	$35.94	—	0.03
Parallax Wave	rare	$28.81	—	0.03
Thrumming Stone	rare	$26.97	—	0.03
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn	mythic	$25.12	—	0.03
Oloro, Ageless Ascetic	mythic	$23.49	—	0.03
Inventors' Fair	rare	$19.97	—	0.03
Land Tax	mythic	$19.80	—	0.03
The Chain Veil	mythic	$19.55	—	0.03
Pact of Negation	rare	$19.29	—	0.03
Nylea, God of the Hunt	mythic	$18.56	—	0.03
Krark's Thumb	rare	$18.29	—	0.03
Khalni Hydra	mythic	$16.55	—	0.03
Lord of the Undead	rare	$16.39	—	0.03
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild	mythic	$14.54	$16.46	0.28

Compare with other boxes

Sets released around the same time, so you can see how this one stacks up.

Zendikar Rising

$125 of cards

$50 short of the box price

Double Masters

$874 of cards

no box price

Zendikar Rising

$218 of cards

$259 short of the box price

Questions people ask

It's the average value of the cards in a box. Imagine opening a thousand boxes of this set and adding up every card at its market price — divide by a thousand and you get $138.90. It is not what your box will be worth. Most boxes come in lower, because a small number of very expensive cards drag the average up.

Zendikar Rising

Zendikar Rising Set Booster Box

And if you sold the cards?

What does a box cost you?

Where the value comes from

The cards you're hoping to hit

Every rare and mythic in the set

Compare with other boxes

Questions people ask

What does “expected value” actually mean?

So should I open a box or buy singles?

Could I really get $138.90 back by selling the cards?

Where do the prices come from?

What counts towards the total?

How accurate is this?